Beyond technology: A holistic approach to electrifying heavy trucks
A new study examines the system-level effects of electrifying road freight transport. Using a multi-layer dynamics model, it offers various stakeholders a comprehensive framework to analyse impacts, balance trade-offs, and plan for critical areas such as battery development, charging infrastructure, and electric truck incentives.
The paper “System-level impacts of electrification on the road freight transport system: adynamic approach” has gained a lot of attention since it was published a few months ago, with more than 2,000 downloads and 8 citations. Researchers and industry partners have already begun using the study’s conceptual model.
Zeinab Raoofi, from Integrated Transport Research Lab (ITRL), is one of the authors. She explains the growing interest by pointing out that electrification affects all levels of the freight transport system:
“A concrete example is the impact of battery size and weight on payload capacity. The extra load from a large or heavy battery may require more frequent shipments to meet the same transport demand. This, in turn, could increase the total mileage and contribute to traffic congestion.”
“Another example is the chicken-and-egg problem of charging infrastructure versus electric truck adoption. Widespread adoption of electric trucks requires a dense charging network, but building it lacks incentive without enough trucks. Policymakers and businesses must break this cycle to accelerate sustainable transport,” Zeinab Raoofi says.
Understanding the impacts of electrification and their ripple effects is a complex challenge. Zeinab Raoofi describes how the study combines a multi-layer model with system dynamics methodology to address this challenge:
“The study presents a conceptual multi-layer dynamic model illustrating the causal relationships between variables and actors in different layers, showing how electrification impacts the system. It distinguishes between direct and induced impacts and shows how potential policy interventions can influence these effects,” she says.
A model with many applications
The model enables stakeholders to assess the necessary trade-offs when developing strategies for a sustainable freight transition. For example, companies may be deciding between investing in large batteries with greater reliance on depot charging or smaller batteries with increased dependence on fast en-route charging. They may also be considering the impact of choosing electric trucks over diesel ones.
For researchers working on freight transport systems or sustainable mobility, the model offers a structured framework for analysing electrification’s impacts on logistics networks, infrastructure, and system interactions. Policymakers can use it to guide the transition to a sustainable road freight system.
“Using the model can help policymakers make informed decisions on strategic investments in charging infrastructure, regulatory measures to accelerate the electrification of freight transport – as well as the impact of financial incentives for electric truck adoption,” Zeinab Raoofi says.
Are there any next steps?
“The conceptual model provides a broad perspective on various issues, highlighting their complexity. The next step is to focus on specific parts of the framework and develop a system dynamics mathematical model to deepen the understanding of specific causal relationships.”
Text: Alexandra von Kern