Potential for wind power in the ÖMS regions - a spatialplanning support tool for localising suitable sites and techno-economic evaluation

Project title: Potential for wind power in the ÖMS regions - a spatialplanning support tool for localising suitable sites and techno-economic evaluation
Project leader:  Ulla Mörtberg
Participating researcher:  Deepa Manolan Kandy
Financed by: Region Stockholm
Project duration: 2024-01-01-2025-12-31

This is especially urgent in urban and peri-urban regions,where electricity demand is high and electricity generation may be low. For this purpose, the spatial multicriteriaanalysis (SMCA) tool REWIND was recently developed, which will now, in a novel approach, be integrated with atechno-economic evaluation based on energy system analysis methods. The aim is to further develop the REWINDplanning support tool that can be used e. g. in a supportive collaboration platform, linking regional and municipalplanning levels. The first target is to design and evaluate on-shore wind power planning alternatives for the ÖMSregion, while investigating robustness and uncertainties in the decision rules by exploring different scenarios. Thesecond target is to link to energy systems analysis for integrating a techno-economic evaluation of the planningalternatives.

The methods involve applying the REWIND tool including SMCA, focus group discussions with stakeholders forensuring relevance of the decisions taken at key stages, and a techno-economic analysis of the levelized cost ofelectricity and key economic parameters for evaluating the planning alternatives and scenarios. Expected results aremaps and a multi-dimensional sustainability evaluation of wind power planning alternatives for the ÖMS regions,including social, ecological, and techno-economic dimensions. As well, the improved REWIND methodologicalframework is a result in itself, expected to increase the potential for knowledge-based and inclusive wind powerplanning.

Onshore wind energy in Sweden has been increasing significantly in the last decade and is expected to increasein the coming years. The high share expectations of wind energy is largely driven by the Swedish Energy goal ofachieving 100% renewable electricity by year 2040, energy policies and reduction in technology costs. However,wind energy development also faces a multitude of ecological and societal impacts that needs consideration.Additionally, there are techno-economic aspects like wind speed, distance to power grids, distance to roads etc.which need to be integrated in wind power planning. In other words, on-shore wind power development comes withsynergies and trade-offs between sustainability goals, such as energy and climate goals versus social and ecologicalgoals. Therefore, it is important to understand the interlinkages among sustainability goals, interpret thesebased on the regional and local circumstances and integrate them into a systematic planning process for the sitingof wind farms, including stakeholder involvement in critical steps to ensure relevance of decision rules . This canpave way for a sustainable expansion of wind power in the long term.

A useful tool for integrating all these aspects is spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) that transforms geographicaldata regarding multiple criteria and stakeholder’s preferences into decision aiding output maps. It has becomea commonly applied methodology in the field of land use and renewable energy planning. However,complexity of diverse criteria, stakeholder perspectives and trade-offs when aggregating criteria can make theresults from SMCA difficult to comprehend in a real world-planning situation.

Therefore, we developed the REWIND methodological framework, for onshore wind farm planning support. This wasdone by revisiting existing SMCA methods, in dialogue with stakeholders, which led to development and integrationof novel steps such as a GIS-based tool for creating and iterating spatial indicators of the criteria, conflict mapping,and a more user-friendly and straight-forward weighting process. The goal was to provide a useful planning supporttool, which is able to integrate knowledge and stakeholder views in a more transparent way.

However, to increase relevance, the evaluation stage of the REWIND framework need further development, in theform of a techno-economic evaluation based on energy systems analysis methods. In this way, the REWINDtool can be upgraded, to be useful as a platform for knowledge integration and collaborative planning, linkingregional and municipal planning levels for sustainable planning of wind power.